Brazil will proceed to apply a tax increase on fixed-odds betting licences from 2026 onwards.

This afternoon, the Senate’s Committee of Economic Affairs (CAE) approved a plan to raise taxes on betting licences from 12% to 18% of gross gaming revenue (GGR).

The measure will be processed over a three-year period, rising from 12% to 15% by 2027 and onto a further threshold of 18% by 2028.

CAE intervention changed the previous consideration to double taxes on Bets licences to 24%, which was considered following the PT government’s failed attempt to pass tax hikes via a vote in Congress in October.

After that setback, the tax plan was returned to the Senate, where it was merged with new tax increases on fintech services to keep the government’s fiscal package alive.

Economic projections indicate that the combined betting and fintech tax reforms will raise approximately R$5bn in federal revenue from 2026 onwards.

Though modified, the measures have the backing of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, who view the reform as the final piece needed to finance the PT government’s expanded welfare programmes.

Still pending final approval, Lula has earmarked R$300bn for social spending in 2026, backing a mandate the President deems as “the largest social-investment package in Brazil’s history.”

An architect of the original betting regime, Finance Minister Haddad shifted course in August, abandoning plans to raise the financial-transaction tax (IOF) after congressional resistance. He instead turned to taxing “bets” as a more politically viable alternative.

Following the CAE’s approval, the bill to increase betting and fintech taxes now advances to the Chamber of Deputies. If no senator requests a plenary review within five days, it will skip a full Senate vote and proceed directly to the lower house, where it will undergo further committee analysis before a final plenary decision. Any amendments will then return to the Senate for confirmation.

The tax settlement of 18% GGR closes out a rollercoaster first year of the ‘Bets’ regulatory regime, which has seen Brazil launch its fixed-odds and online gambling marketplace while operators adapt to new restrictions on bonuses, incentives and the targeting of low-income (Bolsa Família) users.

Looking to 2026, the government is expected to address several outstanding regulatory gaps including the creation of a federal self-exclusion register and the drafting of a dedicated bill to govern online gambling advertising.

Meanwhile, the Chamber of Deputies will re-open suspended deliberations on PL 2,234/2022, the long-running “casino bill” that seeks to legalise and regulate land-based gambling under a new federal framework.

With major policy questions still unresolved and political dynamics shifting rapidly, Brazil is likely to remain the global gambling industry’s most unpredictable market in 2026.