The Dutch sector has paid a high prize for the actions of a bygone dysfunctional government.

Dutch trade body VNLOK painted a worrying picture about the domestic online gambling market to financial news outlet Financieele Dagblad.

The trade body shared that revenues so far pale in comparison to the ones from this time last year, suggesting that Dutch market growth may have slowed after four years.

An independent audit of 70% of all online licence holders found that their total GGR in H1 was more than a quarter lower than the first half of 2024, which of course also means lower revenue from taxes for the treasury.

This is on the backdrop of an already implemented GGR tax increase to 34.2%, with another hike to 37.8% incoming in 2026 – courtesy of a fragile four-coalition government that lasted just under a year in power.

Despite being short-lived, however, the consequences brought by the right-leaning coalition on the Dutch betting sector are coming across as detrimental, at least from a strictly financial point of view.

The financial impact is being felt across the land-based industry as well, with industry organisation VAN Kansspelen telling Financieele Dagblad that brick-and-mortar turnover was down 7% YoY this spring. This is excluding the continuous arcade venue closures across the Netherlands.

Therefore, instead of the additional €200m-per-year that the tax increase was aimed at bringing in, the general consensus now is that the target amount must be significantly lowered.

Government collapse not holding back Dutch reform

The need for adjustment is expected to be mentioned in the next market activity report of Dutch gambling regulator Kannspelautoriteit (KSA).

With a large number of market reforms still underway, it is to be seen whether or not the current situation will call for some of them being omitted from Legal Secretary Teun Struycken’s reform agenda.

Some of these reforms have introduced a blanket ban on gambling sponsorships in sports and overarching player limits across licensed online gambling providers.

On paper, evidence has shown these measures to be improvements that have led to Dutch players exhibiting less risky behaviour.

However, given the prominence of the black market, combined with the ongoing rollout of restrictions for licencees, concerns remain whether dwindling gambling revenues are a result of more customers migrating to illegal operators.

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