The Government of Gibraltar has taken a major step as it confirmed that it has licensed its first prediction markets operator.

Although the exact identity of the company has not yet been announced by the government, a Gibraltar firm called Predict Street Ltd can be seen listed as a betting intermediary on the official list of approved licensed operators. 

The platform claims to be the “Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026” and prompts users to sign up for early access by inputting details of their name, email address and country of residence.

Gibraltar’s debut in the growing predictions space was confirmed by Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, Nigel Feetham, and signals the country’s aim to diversify its gambling and financial services ecosystem.

It will certainly raise eyebrows as Gibraltar becomes one of the few jurisdictions in Europe to allow prediction markets to operate. This is in stark contrast to other European jurisdictions like the Netherlands, Romania, Ukraine, France and Portugal, to name a few.

Certain businesses in the predictions space have been banned in various parts of the world due to the controversy around whether the platforms are a form of gambling or not. The five nations mentioned above, for example, have all kicked Polymarket out of their jurisdictions.

Announcing the development in Parliament, Feetham said the move reflects a broader strategy to attract new forms of investment and position Gibraltar at the forefront of emerging markets within gaming and fintech. 

“We have licensed a new company operating in the “prediction markets” sector, processing the application in record time following my attendance at Consensus Hong Kong last month,” he said.

“This is the pace at which we must act to help offset at least some of the loss of tax revenues following the recent increase in UK Gambling Duty, while continuing to grow our local ecosystem.

“We are working relentlessly to protect Gibraltar’s economic interests.” 

Gibraltar joins predictions hype

Prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, have gained traction globally as both investment tools and engagement platforms.

The platforms are branded as a form of financial services, but have drawn comparisons with betting exchanges, with some regulators labelling them a form of gambling.

The two standout businesses in the sector – Kalshi and Polymarket – have gained both positive and negative attention, along with a seismic amount of popularity and revenue in recent months. 

As well as European scrutiny, both have been banned in New Zealand and Polymarket was recently ordered to cease operating in the Netherlands as the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the Dutch regulator, said that it offers ‘illegal gambling services’.

Both have been criticised for offering war-related markets, and in the US – by far the biggest market for prediction providers – policymakers are beginning to take action. Last month, a bill was introduced to the US Senate to ban US government officials from trading on the sites.

However, the potential monetary gain from prediction markets is there for all to see. Millions of dollars are wagered on the sites, and Kalshi was last month valued at a staggering $22bn (£16.5bn) following a funding round of over $1bn. 

It is yet to be confirmed whether it is one of the two big predictions players will be entering Gibraltar. Other prediction markets or even traditional iGaming operators expanding into predictions could also make a move in the jurisdiction. 

This is hardly uncommon, with FanDuel and DraftKings having launched their own prediction platforms in the US, while UK betting exchange Matchbook announced its intentions to do so last year, albeit with a focus on the US.

Nonetheless, it is clear that Gibraltar’s policymakers are keen to diversify the territory’s gaming and fintech economy as it braces for the impact of the new tax regime coming into effect today in the UK – a core market for the vast majority of Gibraltar-domiciled gaming firms.