Gibraltar is moving quickly to position itself at the forefront of technologies, with prediction markets and tokenisation now central to its regulatory strategy.

Speaking ahead of his trip to Consensus Miami, Justice, Trade and Industry Minister Nigel Feetham made clear the direction of travel – act early, or risk being left behind. 

His comments underline a deliberate push to expand Gibraltar’s existing digital assets and gaming ecosystem into adjacent verticals, as he said it will look to ‘intend to lead from the front’.

Gibraltar’s jump into predictions

The jurisdiction has already begun licensing operators in the prediction markets space, signalling a willingness to move faster than larger regulators still assessing how to classify and supervise the vertical. 

Countries including the UK, France and the Netherlands have all said that prediction markets would need to apply for gambling licences – something which most would not be willing to do as this would effectively be stating that they are gambling companies.

Feetham framed the speed at which the much-discussed ADI Predictstreet was licensed in Gibraltar as a competitive advantage as opposed to a regulatory risk, with further applications already in progress.

He also made reference to US President Donald Trump, whose administration has been much more friendly to predictions than his predecessor, Joe Biden. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has gone from being very opposed to predictions under Biden to being at first more neutral and then outright supportive under Trump.

“President Trump is right. In a fast-moving global market, countries that stand still risk being left behind,” said Feetham.

“That is why Gibraltar is moving at pace across key digital sectors including AI, digital assets, and prediction markets, supporting innovation and expanding the ecosystem we have already built. 

“We have chosen to act early on the licensing of prediction markets because Gibraltar is not only ensuring it is not left behind, we intend to lead from the front.

“We are already seeing strong interest following the recent licensing of an operator and expect to progress a number of new applications.”

Gibraltar keeps eye on emerging tech

Tokenisation is next. Draft legislation is complete and expected to be published shortly, following commitments made earlier this year. 

The aim is to create a structured framework that allows tokenised assets to develop within a regulated environment, mirroring Gibraltar’s earlier approach to digital assets.

This regulatory push comes as prediction markets continue to gain traction globally, particularly around major sporting events. As mentioned above, FIFA has already moved into the space through a new partnership with ADI Predictstreet.

However, early-stage limitations remain. With ADI Predictstreet currently only licensed in Gibraltar, it constrains its reach into other regulated markets.

Perhaps Feetham is encouraging others to follow Gibraltar, as, with just the one licence, ADI Predictstreet will only be able to give access to Gibraltar’s around 40,000 citizens. 

Yes, prediction markets are increasingly appearing alongside traditional sports betting and media partnerships, illustrated by recent deals such as Polymarket’s collaboration with LaLiga’s US-facing business arm.

But many have raised ethical concerns about them – from insider trading, to the ethics of geopolitical markets, to the debate as to whether predictions are a form of gambling or a form of financial services.. 

The airing of these concerns  has been seen as recently as this morning, with a gambling addiction expert calling for prediction markets to be regulated in Ireland. 

There are clearly opportunities with prediction markets, hence Gibraltar’s push to act quickly, but a rush to regulate could bring up all manner of issues in the near future, the same issues may be deterring other countries around Europe to follow suit. 

One would only have to look as far as the controversy around Kalshi and Polymarket to see the risks.