The most turbulent week of political maneuvering on the future of the Bets Law, has ended with reports that Lula is drafting his own Presidential Decree on gambling. 

Leonardo Biazzi, Editor of SBC Noticias Brasil, views that the President will opt to bypass any conventional legislative routes to reshape Brazil’s gambling sector.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will show his hand on the future of the Bets Law and online gambling in Brazil by mid-May.

The message comes not from the ranks of the Workers Party (PT) government, but from a scoop by journalist Lauro Jardim in his weekly column for O Globo.

Jardim cites that Lula aims to heal the fractures of a divisive online gambling regime, by a presidential decree of reforms and protections. The mandate will be coordinated by the Civil House, with input from the Ministries of Finance, Planning and Justice.

Lula is described as “no friend of the Bets Regime”, and this week industry eyes were firmly fixed on the President and whether he would support a bill put to Congress by the Legal Caucus of the PT government to repeal the Bets Law.

The Bill (PL-1808/2026,) carried the signature of PT Deputy Pedro Uczai, and 68 party members to authorise an outright ban on all forms of gambling (except lotteries), and apply sweeping changes and penalties to stop third parties (finance and media) that coerce gambling.

The media have pressed the PT to find out whether the President supports the ban on gambling, returning Brazil back to a status of prohibition after just 15 months of legal betting under the Bets framework.

Yet, to everyone’s surprise, it appears that Lula is prepared to table his own proposals as a counter measure — rejecting prohibition, but significantly tightening controls on online gambling and who is allowed to play and participate in the market.

As detailed by Jardim’s scoop, Lula seeks to design a regime that will prohibit individuals enrolled in government financial assistance programmes from accessing betting services. 

The decree sees Lula once more seek to safeguard Bolsa Família recipients from participating in online gambling — an issue that was central to the drafting of the original Bets framework.

Lula wants no debt in gambling

The PT government continues to frame betting as a driver of household debt, citing more than 80 million indebted Brazilians (Serasa data).

However, this narrative is challenged by official figures from the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA/MF), which show that gambling accounts for just 0.46% of household consumption.

Alongside participation limits, Lula is expected to apply sweeping protections on gambling advertising, targeting what the government deems “manipulative” marketing practices, particularly content that encourages compulsion or addiction among consumers.

Tackling household debt remains central to Lula’s political calculus, forming a key pillar of his approval ratings and re-election strategy ahead of Brazil’s October election cycle.

To conclude, Lula has effectively positioned the Bets regime as a political adversary, framing online gambling as a central fault line in the PT government’s campaign narrative ahead of a potential fourth presidential term.

However, this approach risks creating new tensions.

Should the President move forward with a decree that overrides or sidelines the existing framework, it is likely to draw criticism from both industry and legislative observers, many of whom question why the government has not relied on Congress to resolve outstanding issues like targeted advertising rules and the completion of consumer protection measures.

A presidential decree may ultimately prove an unnecessary escalation. Mechanisms already exist within the legislative process to address concerns around indebted consumers and market safeguards.

As seen with the contentious tax changes to the Bets regime at the end of 2025, there is a growing risk that executive overreach could undermine policy coherence — turning what is framed as reform into another misstep in the PT government’s handling of the sector.