Things have become very interesting in the Netherlands in the wake of the latest Dutch election results.

Snap elections appeared on the horizon after the previous coalition government fractured earlier in June as a result of Greet Wilders and his right-wing party PVV walking away.

As a result, the latest polls revealed that PVV suffered a blow in public approval, losing 11 seats in the new Parliament. However, they still came in as one of the two biggest political powers, sharing 26 seats each with Rob Jetten’s centrist D66 which won 17 new seats.

With 76 seats needed to form a majority, a coalition government will have to be elected once more. This is easier said than done, however, as PVV won the disdain of its colleagues through its earlier actions and general far-right politics. 

The centre-right VVD, which was part of the previous coalition and now has 22 seats, has explicitly stated that it refuses to rule alongside PPV. 

This sentiment was echoed by the green GroenLinks (PvdA), which is now the fourth largest party with 20 seats. The conservatives from the CDA, who just won 13 new seats for a total of 18, are also anti-Wilders.

With D66 also being sworn enemies with PPV, this means that the four biggest parties are openly against working with Wilders. The PPV leader himself has previously stated that he would rather govern in a minority government. 

PPV could still in theory cede a role in the government, but this would mean the party losing even more public support. 

A coalition government is inevitable, but with gambling reforms tabled, this could mean more uncertainty on which direction the industry takes, and when a direction will be decided upon.

D66 views on gambling

Now for the question that interests us all as an industry – how do Rob Jetten and company feel about gambling? 

Well, not opposed to it as it turns out, as long as the sector remains sufficiently regulated and supervised.

On the online gambling front, D66 was a stern supporter of the Remote Gaming Act (KOA) introduced in 2021 to regulate iGaming in the Netherlands. 

With the current KOA reforms – introduced by Franc Weerwind and succeeded by Teun Struycken – still being implemented, Jetten would be more likely to secure continuous support if they bring the envisioned player protection goals. If not, he is likely to ask for adjustments.

There’s also the aspect of the upcoming gambling tax increase to 37.8% in January next year. D66 has historically been pro-funding for social initiatives, including combatting problem gambling harm. 

So again, speaking from a purely societal impact, the party would keep the tax hike in place – not just to fill the government’s purse, but to invest back into problem gambling support and prevention.

Recent developments in the Dutch market, however, leave the door open for a potential second scenario where D66 advocates for a reversal of that tax increase.

As it became clear in the latest market analysis from the regulator, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the 34.2% tax increase introduced at the start of this year has actually led to less revenue generated from operators – paradoxically leading to less money from taxes.

Not only that, but the regulator confirmed that legal market channelisation rates dropped from 51% at the end of December 2024 to 49% in January this year. This could be interpreted as the legal Dutch market losing players to the black market.

Again, from a player protection perspective, D66 could take emergency actions to try and reverse the damage by either reducing taxes or getting rid of some of the latest KOA reforms, such as stricter deposit limits, to try and get players back under Dutch jurisdiction.

Frank Op de Woerd, CEO of CasinoNieuws, commented as follows: “The coalition process will be complex, especially if PVV remains the largest party. A centrist government is possible, but negotiations will take time. This prolonged uncertainty could delay policy decisions. 

“That would be detrimental to the proposed gambling tax increase to 37.8%, which the industry had hoped could be frozen or reconsidered.

“Overall, while short-term uncertainty remains, the structural outlook for the regulated market seems more secure than before. The political appetite to roll back the KOA framework appears smaller than ever, which is reassuring for the sector.”

Regarding the land-based sector, in the past D66 has stated that it is pro-abolishment of the state monopoly currently in place with Holland Casino. This was also part of the CDA’s most recent manifesto.

SBC News will obtain a bird’s eye view of the new political landscape and what it means for gambling later today when it attends the post-election Gaming in Holland webinar.