“Arsenal almost certainly 26/27 favourites” – Paddy Power, Betway and Betfair’s Premier League reflections
Well, they did it. Arsenal and Aston Villa ended their decades-long respective droughts, the former winning their first Premier League title since 2004 and the latter claiming the Europa League, their first European title since 1982.
For bookmakers, the 2025/26 Premier League season has been a big one from a trading perspective, with Arsenal and Manchester City’s title race, and an emerging West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur relegation battle that will go down to the wire this weekend.
In a special edition of Bookies Corner, we’re taking a look back at the 2025/26 season from start to finish. Hopefully most Arsenal fans are over their Wednesday hangovers by now, but for us, one question is on our minds – did anyone expect this back in August 2025?
James Mackie, Flutter Entertainment Senior PR Executive, told us that at the start of the season Arsenal were given “a 27% on the Betfair Exchange of winning a first Premier League title since 2004”.
“Overall, punters still viewed them as unlikely to win the league,” he said. “Liverpool were the clear favourites as the 2025/26 campaign kicked off, at 34%, with Man City at 21% and Chelsea at 11%.”
Manchester City were, unsurprisingly, one of the favourites at the start of the season, and a lot of punters thought at times that the writing was on the wall. On the Paddy Power sportsbook, Liverpool were favourite to win, followed by City, but bettors had more faith in the Mancunians.
Paddy Power’s PR Manager, Rhys Turell, said: “As expected, Manchester City – who started this season as second-favourites for the title behind Liverpool – attracted the most interest in the outright market, while Manchester United attracted the second-highest number of bets.
“Interestingly, more punters backed Aston Villa than Arsenal.”
Arsenal prove doubters wrong
Short of being decided on the final day, the season came fairly close to the wire – certainly in comparison to Liverpool’s 2019/20 season win, City’s 2017/18 season win, or Manchester United’s 2000/01 season win.
A few weeks ahead of the final day, many fans expected Manchester City to catch up with Arsenal, especially given that at one point the defending champions had a game in hand over their London competitors.
Betway’s PR Manager, Lewis Knowles, remarked that the bookmaker was still seeing “a big liability on Manchester City to win the Premier League”, though he did note that a lot of this activity “was around the time of Arsenal’s late-March to early-April blip” – including defeat at the Etihad.
However, after the Monday night win at Burnley, they went up to 70% to win the league.
For Arsenal fans, 2025/26 will undoubtedly be etched into their memories for a lifetime – even more so if they manage to score a historic win against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final on Saturday 30 May.
As always though, the victory celebrations don’t last forever and the conversation is now turning to the favourites for next season. With City having been so close to catching Arsenal, punters will be asking themselves whether they can do it again?
Another big question mark hanging over this is Manchester City’s management. The legendary Pep Guardiola is calling time at the Etihad after 10 years, six Premier League titles, three FA Cups and one Champions League.
“Arsenal will almost certainly go into next season as favourites,” said Rhys Turrell, Paddy Power PR Manager. “Not only will they be defending champions, but Pep Guardiola’s departure from Manchester City could lead to a period of adaptation at the Etihad.
“They have no shortage of star quality, but if they get off to a slow start under a new manager they could potentially leave too much ground to make up.
“Liverpool have their own issues after a poor season and won’t command being favourites, and despite Chelsea looking to have made a good appointment in Xabi Alonso they don’t look ready for a title tilt.
“No doubt there will be interest in a potential Manchester United title charge, but Paddy Power’s trading team remain to be convinced they are at that stage yet, despite an impressive rise up the table in the second-half of the season.”
Spurs relegation woes captivate punters
It’s hard to talk about Arsenal and not mention the North London derby. The Arsenal-Spurs rivalry is one of the most iconic in the Premier League, and has produced many thrilling matches over the decades.
It’s also safe to say though that this year, Spurs fans will be trying to think of anything else. Not only have their mortal enemies clinched the title, Spurs have been engaged in a relegation battle which for many neutral fans has been just as enthralling, if not more so, than the battle for the title.
The relegation battle has garnered ‘plenty’ of interest on Paddy Power, Turrell tells us.
“Spurs have been the most-backed team to be relegated, gaining momentum in that market over the course of the season, as what once seemed impossible began to look likely,” he said.
“Leeds were also heavily backed for an immediate relegation, falling only just behind Spurs in terms of number of bets. Funnily enough, Manchester United were also the fourth-most backed team to go down.”
The Spurs’ relegation saga – which is still undecided – caught a lot of people off guard. While they didn’t exactly have a thrilling season on 2024/25, finishing 17th, the fact that they were able to win the Europa League last year dispelled some doubt.
At the start of the season, Wolverhampton Wanderers were the best-backed to go down to the Championship on Betway. Given the struggles the club has been having, this isn’t hugely surprising – and many people would have cashed out when the West Midlands side’s demise was confirmed on 20 April.
“Wolves were the most backed team in terms of relegation early in the season,” said Betway’s Knowles. “That might have something to do with the restrictive prices on the promoted three.”
Sunderland beat the odds
Many fans will be all too familiar with the ‘yo-yo club’ – the ones that keep coming up only to bounce back down. This year though, Sunderland beat the odds to have a pretty impressive run for a newly promoted side.
Flutter’s Mackie remarked that Sunderland had been “the surprise package of the Premier League season’, with pre-season odds of 33/1 to finish in the top-half on the Betfair Sportsbook.
On the Exchange, meanwhile, 47% of all relegation market volume was on Sunderland, with Mackie adding that Sunderland “have massively confounded expectations”.
“There were a host of single bets at that price with one bettor standing to win £850 from a £25 stake,” he said.
As always though, a few people fancied their chances. On Paddy Power’s sportsbook, Sunderland started the season at 1000/1 to win the league – but Turrell observed that they ‘still drew plenty of optimistic bets over the course of the campaign”.
The Black Cats attracted the tenth-highest number of bets in the outright winner market, “a strong showing for a newly promoted side.
Betway’s Knowles added that: “We took a decent bet on Sunderland for top promoted team so well done to that punter. Although most people did not think Sunderland would be at this position and that we would have West Ham and Tottenham waiting on the final place.”
Still though, as the season went on, more and more people became confident of Tottenham’s chances – at failure, that is.
“We took quite a lot of bets on Tottenham around Christmas and New Year and that extended our liability into several thousands,” Knowles said. “That money actually dried up once they were more realistically priced and shorter in the market. It looks as though they have escaped, just!”
As the dust settles on the 2025/26 season, the attention turns to two things – the World Cup, kicking off in just three weeks, and of course, next season.
The Premier League’s relationship with betting is finding itself the topic of extensive debate right now, however, particularly regarding sponsorship and marketing.
Next season could prove a critical one for operators in more than just a trading sense…
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