Bookies Corner: Nerves on edge for epic Premier League curtain closer

On Sunday, the Premier League will settle a season with more twists and turns than the WAGagatha Christie affair! With title, relegation and Euro places to be decided on the final day of play – SBC checks in on how bookmakers’ nerves are faring, pricing and predicting the curtain closer to the most vintage of football seasons…

SBC: With the title, relegation and European places to be settled this Sunday. Has this been the most vintage of Premier League seasons for bookmakers?  

Ed Nicholson – Kindred Group

Ed Nicholson (Head of UK sportsbook marketing @ Kindred Group): Liverpool’s win last night away to Southampton has certainly made it yet another exciting end to a Premier League season and with the Premier League title, relegation and a final Champions League spot still up for grabs, it’s all to play for on the final day of the domestic season.

It’s Man City’s title to lose and Unibet odds of 1/7 on the Citizens highlight that fact  well enough, but punters have been keen to engage with the 5/1 on offer for Liverpool to lift what would be a third trophy of this season come Sunday evening.

The race for the final Champions league spot also goes to the wire, although Arsenal’s recent stutters and crushing defeat to Newcastle on Monday has left things firmly in Spurs’ hand.

Spurs are 1/40 to qualify for next year’s Champion League, with their North London rivals Arsenal at 14/1.

At the bottom, three teams are left fighting for PL survival, with Burnley, Leeds and Everton all well and truly in the danger zone. Despite being out the bottom three before games in hand are played, Leeds are current favourites for the drop at 8/11, with an away game at Brentford to finish off the season.

Burnley’s game in hand is at Villa, so Gerrard’s team will have a say at both ends of the table this season. And although with nothing to play for themselves, Gerrard doesn’t come across as a man likely to let his team hit the beach before the final whistle of game 38, and a loss here for Burnley puts Leeds back in the driving seat for safety.

Everton will likely need to be taking something from their game in hand v Palace before a tough final game away at Arsenal. With everything so open, Burnley perhaps look some value for the drop at 33/20, and Everton, although currently safest of the three, look far from home and hosed and 15/2 will be of interest to plenty of value seekers.

Katie Baylis – Betfair

SBC: With all outcomes coming down to the wire, will this weekend EPL curtain closer break all existing EPL wagering records? 

Katie Baylis (Betfair PR Spokesperson): What a final day of the season we have in store; it’s very exciting as there are so many outcomes to settle.

As it is the only time this season we have a full slate of Premier League games kicking off at the same time, we will be seeing a lot of the “usual suspects” for final day ACCAs. Popular accas with punters include 10 Home wins, 10 Away Wins, BTTS in all 10 games, and the dreaded 10 Draws (currently 7,353,915/1 for ten ties).

Man City are the odds-on favourites to win the title at 2/13. However, Betfair Exchange punters will be quick to react if things don’t quite go to plan at the Etihad, with Liverpool 6/1 to win the league.” 

Harry Aitkenhead – Coral

SBC: As stands, how confident are bookmakers of their final day markets… Which matches are causing concern regarding shocks and big payouts?
Harry Aitkenhead (PR Executive @ Coral): The big payout drama we are concerned about is obviously the Liverpool quadruple.

At its current price of 15/2 it is a longer price than it has been (shortest of 9/2) however still, we have built up big liabilities on it and it now just comes down to two matches. Traditionally it is three figures and then some at the start of the season for any team, and punters continued to back it the further they went. So we will be hoping that Manchester City win the title despite them being the favourites before a ball is kicked.

For us, it was a notable moment when they went shorter than 6/1 for the quadruple, as that is the shortest we have ever made a team to achieve the epic feat. That was Manchester City back in 2018 before an FA Cup defeat.

We also had Liverpool at 13/10 to win a cup treble before their FA Cup final against Chelsea, so now at 1/2 to lift all three, we are hoping that Real Madrid will cause an upset in Paris.

On the top four, Tottenham and Arsenal have constantly flipped in the betting, so there is no major impact either way for us.

Overall, we have seen strong interest from our customers in the outright markets through the season and stakes before the season began were strong, so we look forward to the new season already for another chance to test ourselves against punters’ predictions.

We have already opened up betting for next season and Newcastle to make the top four has attracted significant support so they might well be one that we want to underachieve and we’ll be keeping a close eye on their transfer movements.

Chad Yeomans – Betway

SBC:  With so much still to play for on the season’s final day, are bookmakers prepared for another ‘Aguero/93:20 moment?

Chad Yeomans (Head Of Communications and PR @ Betway): The Premier League season, yet again, has delivered us an exciting and action-packed final day of the season, with the title, the fourth-placed spot (for a place in the Champions League) and relegation all going to the wire!

Both Man City and Liverpool have been exceptional this season, but it’s Man City who go into the final matchday with a one-point advantage and are 1/5 to be crowed Champions on Sunday evening, with Liverpool a 9/2 shot with us.

Spurs’ recent victory over North London rivals Arsenal and their form since that game has meant that they’re in pole position for fourth place and are 1/25 to be playing Champions League football next season, with Arsenal priced at 12/1 to upset and jump above their local rivals in the table.

At the bottom end of the table, it’s a little closer between two sides who are playing for their place in the Premier League. Leeds are 2/5 for relegation as they face an in-form Brentford side, whereas Burnley, who welcome Newcastle to Turf Moor, are a 2/1 shot to face the drop.

There will no doubt be plenty of frills and spills from around the grounds this Sunday and nerves and passion takes over many of the players who are playing for so much, and we’re expecting that our traders are going to be incredibly busy with in-play markets on the most exciting day of the season so far.


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