SBC Noticias – Brasil’s Ana Maria Meneses reports that the Brazil Bets tax increase has changed course at the last minute, as the rapporteur seeks to apply retroactive taxes on pre-regulated operators.

In a surprise move for all stakeholders, Brazil’s provisional measure outlining tax increases for the country’s ‘Bets’ betting and gaming market has been significantly modified.

Breaking developments in Brasilia, see Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), the rapporteur of MP No. 1.303/2025, has withdrawn the section that would have required a vote to raise the tax on betting licence income from 12% to 18%.

Instead, Zarattini has asked Congress and the Senate to review a new proposal introducing a retroactive tax model known as “Litígio Zero Bets” (Zero Litigation Bets).

Deliberations on increasing tax duties for the Brazil Bets framework have been ongoing since June, when the Receita Federal published its first economic report on betting revenues. 

The report revealed that the Bets market has already generated R$ 3.8bn (Circa €685m) in tax revenue, underscoring the sector’s growing fiscal contribution since its launch on 1 January 2025.

Originally, the government expected to raise R$ 1.7bn through a higher GGR rate. Zarattini’s revision replaces this with the creation of the Special Regime for Foreign Exchange and Tax Regularisation to be referred to as  – Litígio Zero Bets, targeting companies that operated in Brazil before regulation, between 2014 and 2024, allowing them to regularise past activities.

Under the proposal, only operators licensed by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA/MF) will be taxed by the special framework. The modality calls for ‘voluntary adherence’ to be imposed on Bets licenses who will be required to pay 15% income tax on retroactive income, a 100% fine, accounts must be submitted within a 90-day window.

The shift comes amid mounting resistance within the government’s allied base, which had threatened to block the measure over fears of excessive tax pressure on regulated firms. Behind the scenes, negotiations also shielded agribusiness and fintech sectors from higher rates, following lobbying from congressional blocs tied to those industries.

Zarattini’s report further toughens enforcement against unlicensed betting, requiring internet providers to block illegal sites within 48 hours and holding payment companies accountable for facilitating transactions with unlicensed platforms.

However, the revision is expected to reduce projected tax revenue from R$20bn to R$16bn, according to the Ministry of Finance. The lower yield could force the Treasury to revise its fiscal targets for 2026 if the measure is not passed in time.

It is also notable that Brazil’s 2026 federal budget has not yet been finalized, introducing additional uncertainty to the country’s fiscal planning and increasing the stakes for the outcome of this betting tax debate.

The report is due for a joint-committee vote today, with possible plenary sessions in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate by Wednesday (8 October). If the measure fails to secure approval by the deadline, it will expire, leaving the government without the new framework and potentially derailing its 2026 revenue plan.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has expressed his support for introducing an 18% income tax on betting operators in the second year of the Brazil Bets regime. However, it remains unclear whether the proposal can be reintroduced into the national budget before the end of the year.

SBC Notícias is currently monitoring developments and political reactions to the unexpected changes and revisions made by Zarattini — alterations that are likely to face pushback from senators advocating for a straightforward tax increase on gambling activities.