It’s fair to say that Arsenal and Paris Saint Germain have had differing Champions League runs this season. 

Both have now been crowned domestic champions and will go head to head tomorrow to claim Europe’s biggest club trophy. 

But the contrast in their Champions League seasons has been there for all to see. 

The French champions, who are looking to win back-to-back Champions Leagues after breaking their curse last season, set off like a bullet from a gun and it looked like the writing was on the wall after three straight wins over Atalanta, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen.

However, a stuttering end to their Champions League group stage campaign, with two draws and a loss from their last three, saw the holders forced into a round of 32 playoff against fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco – which they squeezed through 5-4 on aggregate. 

Normality seems to have returned now though. PSG’s free-flowing football has seen them convincingly defeat nearly everyone in their path.

An 8-2 aggregate obliteration of Chelsea was followed by a convincing 4-0 quarter-final victory over two legs against Liverpool. They then beat Bayern Munich 6-5 on aggregate in the semis, which included an all-timer first leg in Paris that saw the French side win 5-4. 

Arsenal, in contrast, completely dominated the group stages. Eight wins from eight with just four goals conceded saw them top the table with ease. 

But the knockouts haven’t been quite so simple. The newly-crowned English champions have won two of their three two-legged games by the odd goal, and the other by two – 3-1 against Bayer Leverkusen, a 1-0 victory over Sporting CP and then a tense 2-1 defeat of Atletico Madrid in the semis. 

It might be because of this that, ahead of tomorrow’s final in Budapest, betting data shown to SBC News from both bet365 and Sportradar points to overwhelming market confidence behind the French champions.

Champions League final markets breakdown

According to bet365 trading figures, PSG have attracted 83% of outright “to lift the trophy” bets (odds of 4/6 on site), compared to just 17% for Arsenal (6/5). 

The operator also reported heavy backing for PSG star Ousmane Dembélé in player markets, with 55% of anytime goalscorer bets and 37% of first goalscorer wagers placed on the French Ballon d’Or winner. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ranked second in the anytime scorer market, with one in five punters backing the Georgian to find the back of the net in the Champions League final. 

Meanwhile, Arsenal players drew significantly lower volumes of support. Viktor Gyökeres accounts for 9% of anytime scorer bets, followed by Bukayo Saka, who takes 7% of the market. 

UK giant bet365 is also using its new “More Time to Win” feature for the final. 

Steve Freeth, bet365’s Sports and Trading Expert, explained: “It can be frustrating to see the player you backed in normal time go on to score or have a shot on target in extra time. However, our More Time to Win enhancement is here to solve this problem.

“To illustrate this, consider the UEFA Champions League Final of 2014 when Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid 4-1. The score was 1-1 at the end of normal time, with markets typically settled at that outcome.

“However, with More Time to Win, your bets on various player markets are still running if a match goes into extra-time. So, Anytime Goalscorer punters who backed either Cristiano Ronaldo or Gareth Bale would have collected in an extra time that had three goals, seven shots on target and five yellow cards.”

Elsewhere, Sportradar’s Managed Trading Services, which aggregates betting activity across more than 250 sportsbooks globally, showed a similar pattern in favour of PSG. 

PSG accounted for 75% of bets in final result and outright winner markets, reinforcing the perception that Luis Enrique’s side enter the final as favourites despite Arsenal’s strong European campaign and recent Premier League title win. 

Interestingly, Sportradar noted that long-term tournament winner betting earlier in the competition had leaned slightly toward Arsenal over PSG.

The Gunners collected 56% of outright futures bets placed throughout the season, compared to PSG’s 44%. 

The swing toward the Parisian side ahead of kickoff suggests bettor confidence has strengthened sharply in recent weeks following their incredible knockout phase run. 

For Sportradar, Dembélé alone represented roughly 46% of goalscorer tickets processed through Sportradar’s network, with Kvaratskhelia taking another 28%. 

One Arsenal player accounted for more than 5% individually – Gyökeres at 5.11%.

Saka and Declan Rice are the other two Arsenal players featured among the most-backed Gunners selections.

Meanwhile, the likes of Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Nuno Mendes, Rice and Achraf Hakimi are proving popular with the bookies to be booked at anytime. 

The scale of engagement around the tournament remains enormous. Sportradar revealed that more than 513 million betting tickets have been placed across this season’s Champions League competition.

All eyes are on Budapest as the countdown to what will be a gripping Champions League final continues…