Genius Sports’ Chief Executive Officer, Mark Locke, has made clear that the rise of prediction markets is a win-win for the NYSE-listed company.

It follows the business securing partnerships with the sector’s two dominant forces in Kalshi and Polymarket earlier in the week.

Locke affirmed his confidence in working with prediction market platforms in Genius’ investor call which followed the release of its Q2 2026 results.

Genius upgraded its full-year revenue and EBITDA expectations from $990m-$1.010bn to $1.005bn-$1.025bn and from $270-$280m to $285m-$295m respectively.

This was a result of Q2 revenue coming in at $195.5m, a 64.7% year-on-year jump, and a Q2 EBITDA figure of $52.6m, up 54%.

However, Genius did see its losses widen to $76m, which it largely attributed to  non-recurring transaction-related expenses. 

On prediction markets, Locke said: “The way we think about the market is that we’re taking revenue from anything to do with sports betting. 

“Whether that’s from the traditional online sports betting operators or whether that’s the expansion in the TAM (total addressable market) that we’re getting with the prediction markets, it’s all very net positive for us.”

Initial Legend impact revealed

The CEO of the London-headquartered business also explained that its acquisition of Legend has already begun to make a positive impact. 

He said that “synergies are coming through faster than expected” despite early criticism when the deal was announced. 

However, he did emphasise that success from the deal would be “seen, not told”, and that the Kalshi and Polymarket deals are early proof that Genius’ strategy is already working. 

Locke continued: “Legend started really, really well. We’re super positive about it. I think the synergies are coming through faster than we expected. You can see that. 

“We announced in the last couple of days a Kalshi deal and a Polymarket deal. It’s really proving the thesis that we had when we went out and bought Legend, that there would be immediate and significant synergies. They’re coming through immediately. 

“From an operational point of view, the teams are merging really well. The products are coming out the door in a really satisfactory way, and we’re starting to get some technical crossover as well with our product sets. 

“Overall, it’s been remarkably successful, and we’re super excited about it.”

High hopes for GeniusIQ 

He also spoke of the massive technological gulf between the GeniusIQ product and its nearest competitor.

The platform is the company’s next-generation data and AI product, ingesting real-time tracking, video and stats feeds.

This is then used to power automated officiating, player performance analysis, personalised sports broadcasting, fan engagement and dynamic live sports betting, and has been seen in a plethora of major competitions around the world.

It uses skeletal tracking which, in Locke’s opinion, makes it the standout product in the field. 

“I think we’re at 10,000 points on a human body, 200 times a second vs the number because I think the second player in the market that’s at 26 points on a human body,” he explained.

“The fidelity of the data, the quality of the product, the speed at which we’re capturing it, and then we’re using that technology to do things like the automated event capture, faster data that we’re using in the prediction markets, the whole strategy is coming together brilliantly. 

“We’re extremely pleased about it. We’re rolling new products off the back of it, and it’s becoming a real incremental driver of our growth.”

The key differentiator between GeniusIQ and the firm’s prediction market ambitions may lie in sustainability.

Whether people like it or not, AI is here to stay, and many will also be relieved to read that football too is here to stay. GeniusIQ is a good bridge between the two, and will likely continue to pay off for Genius in future quarters.

Prediction markets are a different matter altogether. While Gibraltar has made history as the first regulated jurisdiction for the platforms, the US remains a regulatory battleground – with Genius’ two big prediction clients, bitter rivals Kalshi and Polymarket, heavily involved.

Time will tell whether prediction markets will be a good long-haul bet, or if regulatory uncertainty and hostility will one day deal a blow to the multi-billion sector.