Predictions markets have exploded in popularity in the US over the past year, and the biggest of the bunch, Kalshi, is now planning on taking its product international.

The firm revealed last week that it has transitioned to a global model that will be made available in over 140 countries including much of Europe, with the exception of Bulgaria, France, Poland, Russia and Ukraine.

Some major English-speaking markets are also off the list. This includes the UK, Australia and Canada, with the former two being some of the world’s most lucrative national gambling markets, while the latter possesses Ontario, a major North American betting market.

“This expansion will create a single, unified liquidity pool for prediction markets, a structure that is unique to Kalshi,” a Kalshi statement read.

“While other platforms operate with fragmented, region-specific markets, Kalshi’s global exchange connects traders worldwide to the same set of events, deepening liquidity and price discovery across every market.”

A flurry of bets on the Nobel Peace Prize

In a development that hasn’t come as particularly surprising, the concept of people betting on various non-sporting events, particularly political and geopolitical ones, has proven controversial to some extent.

Political betting is nothing new in many major betting markets. In the UK, it is a commonly offered product – however, it is usually limited to outcomes like the result of a next general election or the politician most likely to become the next Prime Minister.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are much more wide ranging, with some notable examples on the latter today (13 October) including the chances of a military engagement between the US and Venezuela or for a 100% tariff to be imposed on China by the US.

Over the weekend, more questions were raised about the ethics and integrity of prediction markets when two Norwegian newspapers, Aftenposten and Finansavise, reported a spike in bets on Maria Corina Machado to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Officials told media that it is “too early to be certain” whether the bets on the Venezuelan political figure were the results of a leak. However, others are asking questions and an official investigation has reportedly been launched.

“It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information,” Kristian Berg Harpviken, the Head of the Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg.

$5bn Kalshi not deterred by regulatory battles….

Predictions markets and platforms are no stranger to regulatory and legal proceedings. Kalshi has found itself embroiled in countless legal battles in the years since it launched in 2021, years in which it has also built itself up as the biggest predictions platform in the US.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulator of derivatives markets in the US, was very confrontational towards prediction markets under Joe Biden’s presidency, but under Trump it has taken a much more hands off approach.

This has left prediction markets a state matter. Some state Gaming Commissions have accused Kalshi and others of breaching bans on politics betting while others have directly labelled the firm a betting platform.

Kalshi and other prediction markets providers like Robinhood, which operates its platform via a deal with Kalshi, assert their products are a form of financial services. Kalshi has been taking the legal battle back to the regulators, most recently launching a lawsuit against the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC).

Investors do not seem deterred by this complex regulatory environment. The same day it announced its international expansion, Kalshi also announced $300m raised in a Series D funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital. This round valued the firm at $5bn.

“Kalshi has emerged as a leading prediction market platform,” read a blog post written by Alex Immerman, a Partner on Andreessen Horowitz’s Growth Team.

“Its founders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, have consistently chosen the difficult but more responsible path, pursuing a years-long journey toward licensure and becoming the first CFTC-regulated prediction market.

“As we saw with Coinbase in cryptocurrency trading, Kalshi prioritized regulation and compliance from day one, earning trust and broad distribution. And their breadth of markets, liquidity, and infrastructure are built for scale.”

Kalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others.

Since then, we’ve grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world.

And today…Kalshi goes global.

140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool. pic.twitter.com/Z2myzRw9bA

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) October 10, 2025

…and neither is Polymarket

Polymarket has arguably had a much tougher time than Kalshi when it comes to regulatory and legal matters. The firm exited the US and blocked all US-based customers from its platform in 2022 as part of a settlement with the CFTC.

Its platform was subsequently banned in Belgium, France, Singapore and most recently Colombia, and its CEO, Shayne Coplan, was subject to an FBI raid last year amid accusations of US bets being placed on the 2024 presidential election.

Things have been improving for the firm over the past year, with it securing re-entry to the US via an acquisition and signing a huge deal with social media platform X this year. Like Kalshi, it too has just secured a huge cash injection, just a couple of days before its counterpart.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) signed a deal to invest $2bn in the firm, taking its valuation up to $8bn. In exchange, ICE has become the distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data and a partner on blockchain-oriented initiatives.

Coplan remarked: “Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. Together, we’re expanding how individuals and institutions use probabilities to understand and price the future.”

Can we predict the future of predictions?

The jury is still out on prediction markets, with the regulatory and legal landscape around them fragmented to put it lightly. Some countries like the abovementioned Belgium, Colombia, France and Singapore seem outright opposed and see them as gambling, others like the US see a divergence between the federal and state/regional regulators on what predictions markets should be classed as.

Predictions platforms themselves clearly see a worldwide future, as do inventors. Allwyn, operator of the UK national Lottery, recently acquired PrizePicks just before the fantasy sports firm secured a regulatory listing that lays the foundations for it to enter the US predictions space.

Other markets may prove just as tricky but also just as lucrative. The UK, a prominent market for both financial services and gambling, could present a lot of growth opportunities, but the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) may present some tough regulatory barriers.

“Prediction markets have always had worldwide relevance,” Kalshi summarised its outlook following last week’s $300m funding round. “Events don’t stop at borders, and now, neither does trading on them.

“Whether it’s elections, central bank decisions, sports, or climate, users across continents can trade directly on the outcomes that shape their world.”