The financial concerns raised earlier this week by Dutch industry bodies have now been echoed by the Netherlands Gambling Authority, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).

The regulator seems to be of the view that the 2025 gambling tax hike has backfired. In a new impact assessment, the regulator outlined a fall in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a dragging down of overall market performance.

The tax rise from 30.5% to 34.2%, which came into play on 1 January, has failed to deliver the expected boost in state revenue. Instead, both online and land-based markets have seen a decline in GGR, with tax receipts following suit.

Michel Groothuizen, Chair of the KSA, commented: “A financially driven measure such as gambling tax is contrary to the policy objective of providing players with more protection.

“If we want to be able to offer players a protected game environment in the future, that presupposes serious responsible providers. A financially sound legal market is essential for this.”

Revenue drops confirmed

The KSA’s findings closely match those already shared by Dutch trade bodies VNLOK and VAN Kansspelen, which earlier this week warned that total online GGR had dropped by over 25% in H1 2025 compared to the previous year.

VNLOK described a slowdown in regulated market revenue, with growth appearing to have stalled following four years of steady expansion. At the same time, VAN Kansspelen reported a 7% drop in land-based turnover – excluding the continued closures of arcade venues across the country.

Now, with a further tax increase to 37.8% set for 2026, the pressure on licensed operators is mounting. According to the KSA, land-based operators in particular have fewer options to maintain profitability under the new tax regime. 

While online platforms can adjust margins or cut costs more flexibly, brick-and-mortar venues are rapidly downsizing, with a 9% drop in locations recorded in Q1 2025 alone – a sharp acceleration compared to previous years.

The organisation warns that further market shrinkage could threaten the long-term sustainability of legal gambling in the country.

Online market impact

The KSA also acknowledged that regulatory reforms such as the 2024 Responsible Gaming Policy and new limits on player behaviour have added to the financial strain, especially for online operators.

While these measures may be achieving some of their intended public health outcomes, they are contributing to a drop in revenue, raising concerns about channelisation and the possibility of players turning to unlicensed sites.

Urgent rethink needed

The regulator’s update adds weight to growing calls for a reassessment of the government’s gambling tax strategy, especially given that the now-collapsed coalition responsible for the hike lasted less than a year in power.

Though intended to deliver an additional €200m annually, the tax increase is now widely expected to fall well short of that goal – if not reverse it altogether. The government seems set on moving through with other reforms, however, though these are mainly centred on player protection as opposed to taxation.

The KSA has pledged to continue monitoring the effects of policy on market channelisation and provider viability – which it described as two critical elements in maintaining a functioning, safe and regulated gambling environment.

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