Matchbook has confirmed to SBC News that it is working on a prediction market platform for launch in the UK and engineered for the acute pricing of British politics and entertainment markets.

Bloomberg reported this week that Matchbook, the heritage betting exchange, has a “predictions market product under development”. The outlet reported that Matchbook planned to launch in the UK while it awaits regulatory approval to launch in the US, expected in March.

In a statement sent to SBC News, Matchbook confirmed that the predictions product will make UK landfall in 2026. The firm did not comment on whether it has longer term ambitions to launch in the US, however, though it did note the success predictions have had there.

“The buzz around prediction markets in the US has been undeniable — it’s proving to be one of the most engaging and data-rich forms of trading available,” said Jesse May, Matchbook’s Chief Strategy Officer.

“Matchbook’s platform is designed to provide best-in-class liquidity and a low-commission structure, making it attractive for both experienced financial traders and seasoned betting enthusiasts.”

Can Matchbook pull off UK predictions?

If any company was going to launch a prediction product in the UK, it would be a betting exchange like Matchbook. The similarities between predictions markets and betting exchanges have been widely noted.

Leadership of Flutter Entertainment, operator of the world’s largest betting exchange, Betfair, took note of these similarities while simultaneously monitoring the US predictions space throughout this year – a space it has now entered via the launch of FanDuel Predicts.

Whether a predictions platform can make a splash in the UK, an established betting market since the 1960s, is another matter, however. A big selling point of predictions in the US is that they enable customers to bet on politics and event markets – hence the name ‘event contracts’.

In the UK, politics betting is offered by nearly every licensed bookmaker, as are markets on things like the Oscars or winners of reality TV shows. However, predictions can still go another step beyond.

For example, Polymarket is currently offering markets on when Trump will release the Epstein files and whether Russia and Ukraine will sign a ceasefire this year – though it’s uncertain as of yet what markets Matchbook will put on its exchange, and whether it will go this far.

Matchbook has operated its betting exchange since 2004, establishing itself as one of the few operators to successfully build and sustain market liquidity in exchange-based pricing – a dynamic it believes can be transferred to predictions platforms.

Matchbook’s CSO continued: “Prediction Markets are a fantastic way of presenting our market-leading pricing to customers in a more understandable user interface; all powered by the strength of the Matchbook betting exchange engine.”

US predictions finding shape

Ultimately, it is clear that Matchbook’s end goal is taking its predictions platform live in the US, effectively the home nation and easily the most high value one for the platforms.

The aforementioned Kalshi and Robinhood, along with Crypto.com, returned-from-exile Polymarket and soon FanDuel Predicts, are all scrapping it out for market share in the land of the free.

Roman McDonagh, Matchbook’s CEO, told Bloomberg that the UK will function as a ‘road test’ for the firm’s predictions platform before it takes on the US while also awaiting regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)..

Operating a predictions platform in the US is, on the face of things, a much simpler way of taking on the market than running a sportsbook. Predictions platforms can be operated nationwide under a CFTC licence, while operating a sportsbook requires regulation with the gaming commissions of the 40 different states which have a betting market.

As with all things related to gaming, it’s never black-and-white, however. The American Gaming Association (AGA) and tribal gaming organisations have been lobbying against predictions, while Kalshi has been involved in litigation with several state betting regulators.

US prediction markets are now getting organised as well. This week, a national trade organisation, the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), was formed by Kalshi, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Underdog – the latter a daily fantasy sports (DFS) platform which is making the leap to predictions, as is its main competitor PrizePicks.

“The US is the biggest frontier for prediction markets, and the momentum we’re seeing makes a unified industry voice not just important, but necessary,” said Matt David, Executive Board Member of the Coalition and President of North America and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Crypto.com.

“Prediction markets are a new layer of civic infrastructure – public-good technology that gives people clearer insight and helps institutions make better decisions. They democratize financial participation by rewarding what people know, not who they know.

“As consumer interest accelerates and regulation evolves, this coalition will champion responsible, transparent growth to ensure the benefits of prediction markets reach the broader public.”

The newly founded coalition asserts that nearly half of Americans aged under 45 have used a prediction market while citing Crypto.com data which puts the combined trading volume for at US$27.9bn from January-October 2025. When looking at these figures, its easy to see why Matchbook wants to get in on it.

However, perhaps it’s a little cynical to view Matchbook’s UK predictions market launch as simply a beta test of its product before moving on to chase the big bucks in the US, as other companies clearly see some prospects for predictions in the UK too.

Robinhood, which set up its own platform in the US in partnership with market leader Kalshi, began discussions with UK and EU regulators around a potential European expansion of its product earlier this year. Kalshi has also been embarking on an international push, albeit without some key European markets including the UK.

However, in Europe, the regulatory status of prediction markets has yet to be settled. Initial assessments by regulators indicate that such platforms are likely to be treated primarily as gambling services requiring full compliance with individual laws.