Punters back Boris to survive vote of confidence but premiership is in doubt beyond 2022

Following a four-day public holiday celebrating Queen Elizabeth II’s Platinum Jubilee, the British public has woken to news that PM Boris Johnson will be subjected to a vote of confidence by fellow Party peers. 

The vote was triggered this morning as Sir Graham Brady, Chair of the 1922 Committee, informed the media that he had received over 54 letters (15% threshold) calling for Johnson’s leadership to be challenged.

This evening (from 6-8 pm) all eyes will be glued on the House of Commons as Conservative ministers vote on Johnson’s leadership that has no cure for the scandalous and embarrassing hangover of Partygate.

Matt Shaddick – Smarkets

Yet facing his darkest hour, Smarkets Politics reports that there is a 73% chance that Boris Johnson wins tonight’s no-confidence vote.

The betting exchange cited that the PM’s odds stood at 50/50 when the vote was first announced this morning, however it now appears that Johnson’s opposition will fall well below the 180 votes needed to remove him from office.

“The early betting at Smarkets has moved strongly in favour of Boris Johnson winning tonight’s no-confidence vote,” said Matt Shaddick, Head of Smarkets Politics.

“The chances were rated at almost exactly 50/50 when Sir Graham Brady made his announcement and quickly moved in favour of the Prime Minister. He’s currently given a 73% chance of winning, but these odds are likely to fluctuate in what will be an exciting day for the betting markets.”

Likewise, Betfair agrees with Smarkets reading of the market, in which it has priced Johnson at 2/5 to win tonight’s vote and remain as leader.

Observing a government in disarray, Betfair cites a shortfall in party peers  to replace Johnson as leader, that at present sees Jeremy Hunt at 9/2 and Liz  Truss at 7/1 as long-priced front runner

Sam Rosbottom – Betfair

However, having damaged his credibility and with trust diminishing in his public appeal ahead of by-election campaigns in Tiverton and Wakefield, Betfair states that Boris is odds-on at 5/6 to leave No.10 later this year.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Boris Johnson will face a Vote of Confidence from his Conservative MPs today after the motion was triggered this morning.

“The Prime Minister, who was booed during a service for the Queen’s platinum jubilee on the weekend, is 2/5 to win the Vote of No Confidence, like his predecessor Theresa May did in 2018, however, he is odds-on at 5/6 on Betfair Exchange to leave No.10 this year.”

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