Super Group growth tuned by Africa not M&A noise…
The leadership of Super Group informed investors of the many routes the NYSE business can take to reach its long-term 2028 growth targets as M&A plays remain sidelined.
The underlying narrative of gambling PLCs’ at the start of 2025 sees leadership prioritise further cost controls to sustain corporate performance in an era of higher taxes and compliance demands.
Yesterday’s investor call of Super Group saw audiences tune in to a brighter symphony orchestrated by Chief Executive Officer Neal Menashe and Chief Financial Officer Alinda Van Wyk. The duo projected good vibes as the NYSE gambling group declared its best-year-in-business delivering a record profits of $355m.
Yet 2025 was far from a cakewalk, as Super Group finalised its costly exit from US markets, the withdrawal impacted group EBITDA by approximately $14m (total US exit costs for 2024/25: $60m).
The fruits of a record year see Menashe and Van Wyk sign-off on a $156m special dividend to be paid to investors, who are told that more is yet to come from a profitable firm executing an irreplicable growth strategy.
Leadership has set a new high-bar, in which it targets an annual growth rate of 10% to hit its 2028 long-term targets of $2.6bn-$3bn in corporate revenues combined with an EBITDA range of $700m-$900m.
Super Group’s current trajectory sees CFO Van Wyk tell analysts that the business could be “zoning-in on the lower end of 2028 income targets, by year end”.
“We are keeping in mind the UK-tax, which will be embedded from April 2026 onwards and the change to a regulated market in Alberta (Canada) at the halfway of the year. We build our guidance on current customer momentum, which on that basis sees guidance as conservative for the next couple of years”
With accounts closed on a cash position of $550m, analysts eye whether Super Group has an appetite for acquisitions.
Menashe dismissed the option: “When it comes to M&A, we always are highly selective and we don’t really need it to hit our plans… If it’s a bolt-on and improves our tech and product with attractive returns we may engage”.
Super Group stands by its primary roll-out and fastest ROI strategy: “We’ve seen lots of our competitors overpay, and that’s not what we do. It has to make strategic sense for us, and the businesses we acquire must either be standalone or if they’re coming into our world…that is simply how we look at it”.
Africa engine is in tune!
Dismissing M&A, Menashe has earmarked Africa as Super Group’s quickest growth route. An active strategy that sees Betway active in eight markets, with Namibia the latest launch included in 2026 guidance. The footprint provides the widest African coverage of any listed gambling PLC.
“Our rollout in Africa is deliberate and localised,” Menashe explained. “We are not rushing markets. We want to ensure operating leverage and embed our teams properly before expanding further.”
The Betway brand is established in the top ranks of South Africa, Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria, and is making headway in Tanzania, Botswana and Zambia. Menashe underscores that Super Group knows the nuances of scaling individual African markets, where others must simply catch up.
Growth in online casino is viewed as the, accounting for roughly 80% of group revenue, giving management confidence to navigate African markets sports volatility particularly ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Guidance includes only low single-digit incremental growth from the tournament in saturated markets such as Nigeria, as Menashe measured in framing World Cup impacts.
“The World Cup is about engagement more than anything else,” he said. “It’s a longer tournament with more matches, and that pulls the calendar forward for us. We’ve built in conservative assumptions. It’s a tailwind, but it’s not the whole story.”
Concerns around early-tournament hold on volatility particularly after lessons learnt from 2025’s AFCON which were met with assurances of tighter control.
“We are all over the volatility,” Menashe stated. “We manage incentives carefully, we’ve strengthened our AI pricing models, and we monitor where the exposure lies. Remember, sports is 20% of our business. Casino is 80%. That balance gives us resilience.”
Another African lever lies in South Africa through the launch of SuperCoin, a payments and engagement venture designed to localise transactions and reduce third-party banking costs.
“This is not something where you switch the lights on and it just happens,” Menashe cautioned. “Customers need to adopt it. But we are already seeing reduced banking and payment fees, and as the wallet rolls out in the first half of 2026, we’ll deepen that engagement.”
Meanwhile, integration of the Apricot transaction — consolidating African sports technology — remains on track. The previously communicated $35m annualised EBITDA synergy target remains intact.
“This is not a day-one saving,” Van Wyk clarified. “It’s an annualised number. The savings come from reduced royalties, infrastructure efficiencies and bringing teams closer together. We have already started realising benefits, and the savings we expect for 2026 are embedded in our guidance.”
The message to investors from Super Group’s leadership duo remains consistent as growth is viewed as multi-layered approach that cannot be simply bought or distorted.
African markets provide launchpads for acceleration, its casino provides ballast, its technology provides leverage, and discipline provides margin protection.
For Menashe and Van Wyk, 2026 is less about bold expansion and more about controlled momentum delivered on the mantra of “organic growth and disciplined rollouts”.
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