The Receita Federal (RF), Brazil’s tax bureau, anticipates a significant increase in tax takings generated from licensed online gambling in 2026. 

The declaration follows a 235% increase in Q1 2026 taxes generated from the 87 active licences of the Brazil Bets market, as reported by SBC Noticias Brazil.

The federal government collected R$2.5bn (£350m) in betting-related taxes between January and February,, compared to R$756m (£108.4m) in the same period in 2025.

January alone accounted for R$1.49bn, while February returned R$1.04bn, with analysts noting a potential seasonal slowdown linked to Carnival festivities.

The sharp uplift is attributed to the continued consolidation of Brazil’s regulated betting regime, now entering its second year of full operation under Law No. 14,790/2023.

Market expansion has been a key driver, with the number of fully licensed operators rising from 49 in early 2025 to 87 by February 2026, significantly improving channelisation and tax capture.

New fiscal adjustments were authorised at the close of 2025 by Congress under Law No. 224/2025, setting out a phased increase in the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) tax. The rate rises from 12% to 13% in 2026, with a target of 15% by 2028.

According to RF Secretary, Robinson Barreirinhas, phase-1 of the incremental adjustment is expected to generate an additional R$260m in tax revenue in 2026 alone, reinforcing the government’s confidence in betting as a stable fiscal contributor.

Based on current trajectories, RF views that Bet’s increased intake could reach between R$11bn and R$13bn by the end of 2026, assuming stable player demand is assured the incremental tax lift.

The represent steady year-on-year growth from the R$9.95bn collected in 2025, rather than an exponential surge.

Fuel to political fires

For policymakers, the trajectory underscores a broader objective: to balance revenue generation with regulatory oversight, as Brazil continues to refine its framework amid political scrutiny of gambling’s social impact.

Brazil Bets also enters the spring period with a number of changes to its governance.

In March, the PT government appointed Dario Durigan as the new Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and the Economy, following Fernando Haddad accepting the PT Party’s candidacy to run for the governorship of the State of São Paulo.

Meanwhile, Daniele Cardoso has been confirmed as the new Secretary of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), the federal body overseeing the regulation of Brazil’s betting market, following months of industry speculation.

Taken together, the fiscal surge and institutional reshuffle underline a market moving quickly from launch phase to policy consolidation, as Brazil Bets continues to evolve under heightened political and regulatory scrutiny.