XO Market, a company positioning itself as “the YouTube of prediction markets”, has raised $6m (£4.4m) in a seed funding round led by 20VC and Picus Capital.

Also participating in the round were companies including Coinbase Ventures, Ventures Together, Insiders and Foreword Fund, alongside more than 30 angel investors.

The $6m raised will fund the XO Market’s next phase of development as it builds what it describes as an “open conviction marketplace”, allowing users to create and trade markets on virtually any verifiable real-world event. 

Pitching itself as “a user-generated prediction market that allows you to ask a question and price the potential answer in real-time”, XO Market has also referred to itself as a “convictions market” – although what this actually entails has not yet been clarified. 

Bucking the trend of ‘traditional’ prediction platforms

Co-Founder Ali Habbabeh has positioned the platform as a shift away from traditional prediction market models, arguing existing platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi rely on centrally curated listings, whereas XO enables fully user-generated markets.

Habbabeh is based in Switzerland, though reports suggest that XO Market has set up camp in the highly-regarded tech base of San Francisco. Fellow Co-Founder Walid Al Habboul is based in Vancouver, Canada, according to his LinkedIn profile. 

Since launching its mainnet beta in late 2025, the firm has reported more than $150m in trading volume, over 30,000 users and more than 600 user-created markets. 

The model allows individuals or businesses to define market parameters and fees, with trading activity determining whether markets gain traction.

The company is also preparing to launch “XO Vaults” – a feature designed to open up market-making, traditionally dominated by professional firms, to a broader user base. 

Through pooled capital strategies, users will be able to provide liquidity and earn a share of fees, introducing a passive income layer to the ecosystem.

“On platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket, liquidity is controlled by a handful of large market makers,” Habbabeh told Coinbase in an interview last week. 

“With XO Vaults, anyone can become a market maker. It’s similar to copy trading, but for liquidity provision.

“We’re targeting yields of around 8% to 10% annually based on what market makers typically earn.”

A mixed reception for predictions

Prediction markets more broadly have seen rapid growth, with total industry volume reportedly exceeding $60bn in 2025, driven in part by rising retail and institutional interest.

This growth has not come without scrutiny, though. Some prominent prediction markets have been banned across a plethora of European jurisdictions, including Germany, Belgium, Italy, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Switzerland, France, Hungary and Portugal. 

But on the contrary, Gibraltar recently became the first country to regulate such platforms – so the long-term viability of prediction markets is continuing to raise questions, with the international regulatory landscape looking very fragmented.

Kalshi and Polymarket have become flagbearers for predictions, but are now even causing mass debate in their home of the US, with some ‘events contracts’ coming under fire in states such as New Jersey, Arizona and Illinois. 

The offering of markets on geopolitical conflicts has also raised a few eyebrows, to put it lightly. Examples include contacts on the ongoing war in Iran, military action in Venezuela and whether China will invade Taiwan. 

In response to this, Kalshi said that it does not “offer death markets”. There has also been controversy regarding White House staff using insider knowledge to place bets on said geopolitical conflicts, with one soldier recently accused of betting on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. 

Despite ongoing scrutiny, there seems to be no stemming the flow of the societal boom of prediction markets, and an expansion into Europe now seems somewhat successful, with ADI Predictstreet now being licensed in Gibraltar. 

The platform, which is the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, only launched last month and has already faced a myriad of questions from the wider media, from its rapid rise to its much-discussed leadership. Incidentally, at the time of writing this article, its site seems to be inaccessible. 

Its investor make-up is also interesting, with well-established names participating in the round. 

XO Markets: a fresh face in the predictions space

On the UK side, co-leading the round is London-based venture capital firm The 20VC Fund, founded by venture capitalist and The Twenty Minute VC podcast host Harry Stebbings. Stebbings is also one of the figures behind Project Europe – a “movement investing in the next generation of technical builders with global ambitions”.

Founded just over a year ago, the project was backed by over 150 European founders and is aimed at entrepreneurs, offering €200,000 in exchange for 6.66% equity. 

However, it came under fire from some in the tech space over a lack of female representation, with Debbie Wosskow OBE, Co-Chair of the UK’s Invest in Women Taskforce, saying: “Disappointed to see the lack of female representation in Project Europe.

“At a time when the investment ecosystem in Europe requires re-focus and collaboration…launching a new fund that lacks diversity is a massive missed opportunity.”

Some leaped to Stebbings’ defence on this, referring to his work with 20Sales – an exclusively women-led agency co-founded by himself and a team of eight high-profile female entrepreneurs. 

He has had huge success in both of his podcasting and venture capital avenues, but is yet another figure now associated with prediction markets, or conviction markets, who has faced scrutiny in the public eye. 

Backers of XO Market are effectively betting that a user-generated approach, similar to content platforms where communities drive creation, can unlock the next phase of growth in the sector. 

Whether a potential path into Europe is something that XO Markets envisions is yet to materialise, but its seed round adds yet another layer of intrigue in this ever-evolving industry. 

Being backed by such major investors, and in an industry which is experiencing such a global surge, should put the business towards the forefront of mainstream media.

Yet as we have seen so far since the emergence of prediction markets and other similar ventures, it never seems to be too far away from some form of backlash.