Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), the Gambling Authority of France, has condemned the ‘addictive characteristics’ of prediction markets.

In a strongly worded statement published this morning, the ANJ reiterated the illegal status of prediction markets in France while drawing parallels to cryptocurrency trading.

The French government has been taking a firm stance against predictions, coming amid a significant overhaul of the regulated gambling market following the introduction of new taxes last year.

In December 2024, the regulator ordered Polymarket to cease trading, becoming one of the first in a long list of European countries which have kicked out the world’s largest prediction platform.

In today’s statement, the ANJ doubled down on its stance that prediction markets have  ‘several addictive characteristics’ and essentially place the platforms in the same bracket as illegal gambling companies.

The regulator argued that the 24/7 availability of predictions, the absence of any built-in betting limits beyond amounts wagered as well as the lack of time limits and identify checks amplify the risk for consumers.

“The combination of visibility, accessibility, and virality inherent to this type of platform generates a significant addictive loop,” the ANJ statement continued.

“Beyond the risks of addiction, other risks related to market or public opinion manipulation can incite harmful acts. 

“Indeed, as soon as an actor can bet on an event and influence its probability, the market creates a financial incentive to provoke or accelerate negative outcomes such as performance sabotage in sports or violent actions in geopolitics.”

Predictions and politics at play

France isn’t the only country to have taken offence at prediction platforms, with New Zealand joining the raft of countries to declare the operations illegal at the end of last week.

In Europe, France joins the likes of Germany, Belgium, Romania, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine and Portugal in banning prediction markets. The UK has not made them illegal, yet, but that does not mean that the market is open to the platforms.

The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has made it clear that prediction platforms would require a gambling licence to operate – something which Kalshi and Polymarket would never accept, as this could undermine the argument that predictions are not gambling but instead a form of financial services or investment.

This argument underpins predictions activity in the US, where various state regulators have been involved in litigation against the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. 

In a big win for the predictions, last week the Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) made it clear that the federal regulator is firmly in favour of prediction platforms.

“Today the CFTC is taking an important step to ensure these markets have a place here in America and have the integrity, resilience and vibrancy that our derivatives markets deserve,” said Michael Sellig. “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear – we will see you in court.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, the French regulator is taking umbrage with the idea that prediction markets are a form of investment or financial services.

“The marketing of prediction market platforms aims to attract a new demographic, previously unaffected by traditional casino games and sports betting, who view these platforms as an investment option,” the ANJ’s statement read.

“This perception of the “prediction market” as a form of “investment” reinforces an illusion of competence: the more competent the user believes themselves to be, the more they play, and the more addictive the behavior becomes. 

“The media coverage of large winnings generated by prediction markets, along with the “dream” of making “easy” profits, as with crypto trading, reinforces this illusion in the player, who becomes someone who “predicts the news better than everyone else.”

Lines are being drawn internationally and politically around predictions – US government endorsement versus government opposition in Europe, Asia and Oceania, and US federal support versus US state stonewalling.

The future viability of the sector will ultimately hinge on the outcomes of the elections it offers bets on.

Should the White House become home to a Democrat in 2028, the situation could change rapidly and the CFTC will once again take a confrontational approach to predictions, the same approach that led to Polymarket going into exile between 2020-2025.

Regardless, even if predictions only get a few years of activity, it will be a lucrative few years, with the ANJ noting today that the ‘main global platforms’ saw volumes exceed $27.9bn (£20.6bn) between January-October 2025 alone, with combined revenues estimated at $2bn.