Smarkets: Odds shorten on Boris exit but punters split on PM’s successor

Just as Boris Johnson thought that he had escaped the ‘Partygate’ fiasco, Smarkets reports that the likelihood of the PM leaving Number-10 this month has risen to 43% according to morning odds of 2.13 priced on the betting exchange.

A flurry of bets made against the PMs future, follows yesterday’s shock news that four of Johnson’s senior aides had resigned, no longer willing to advise Britain’s embattled PM.

Chief amongst the resignations was long-term aide, Munira Mirza who leaked her resignation letter to The Spectator – citing that she had lost confidence in Johnson leadership direction.

A damning verdict as calls grow for Conservative Party MPs to cast a vote of confidence on Johnson’s premiership. Observing fast-changing developments Matt Shaddick Head of Smarkets Politics stated  –

“The Downing Street shake-up – including the high-profile resignation of long-term aide Munira Mirza yesterday – has seemingly weakened Johnson’s position over the last 24 hours, according to the latest betting-market moves.”

“The odds of 54 Tory MPs submitting letters of no confidence this month and triggering a vote have risen from 30% to 43%, while Johnson’s chance of surviving the year fell once again – a 2022 exit is now at 67%.”

Paralysed by scandals, political observers question who can step-up with Tory ranks to replace Johnson and a government that faces imminent challenges of curtailing inflation and the cost of living, delivering meaningful outcomes of its levelling up agenda and the growing threat of Russia invading Ukraine.

Matt Shaddick – Smarkets

As stands, Smarkets reports that Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s  is rated 36% likely to succeed Johnson (up from 32% yesterday morning), followed by Foreign Secretary Lizz Truss at 13%.

Meanwhile, Tonbridge MP Tom Tugendhat has become the market’s outsider, given a 10% chance to take over as leader. Jeremy Hunt (9%) and Penny Mordaunt (8%) are the only other contenders currently with odds higher than 5%.

Commenting on leadership challengers Shaddick stated –  “Despite the bad economic news in recent days, Rishi Sunak’s position at the head of the market to take over from Johnson improved somewhat and he remains a clear favourite, with a 36% chance of winning the next leadership contest (up from 32% in the last 24 hours).

 “Tom Tugendhat’s admission that he would likely run in a leadership race has seen him leapfrog better-known candidates into third place in the Next Tory Leader betting. Other dark horses whose odds are improving include Penny Mordaunt (8%), Ben Wallace (5%) and Nadhim Zahawi (3%).”

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